Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The typical count of per-day murders per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent official figures. However, public safety experts have advised that murder figures could fail to indicate enhanced national stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This information was provided by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her national security plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President declared: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was also an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas remarked.