Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
