‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's households.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy transports through the vital shipping lane, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply isn't available," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the south. People are switching to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a financial hub, media reports say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being allocated for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by international market dynamics. But in restaurants across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.