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This surely should not go on. The logic defies sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Historic Triumph Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, achieving it seemed improbable, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. But, Chelsea are vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a baffling knack of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his leg and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he nodded in the winner with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the first goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, however, fortune is favoring Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Streak

Nine of these 11 straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in just one of those games. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those fixtures, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern should not, yet observers have been saying that for some time, and Villa continue winning. The key question is whether their results will eventually align with their performances or if their performances can improve to match the points haul.

This should not be sustainable, but everybody's been saying that for a while and Villa continue winning.

A Core Characteristic: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has gained more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed nine goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a profound self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games with his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement behind the defensive line created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also came on, bolstering the center and adding the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa created eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were commanding and could easily have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca struggled to react as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was Malen who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. At present, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it stepping up to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its halfway stage, they must be viewed as part of the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only had better the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.